Software Industry Consolidation
Consolidation in the Software Industry is hardly New: Obsess about It or Risk Losing it All “Some analysts credit [Larry] Ellison with anticipating the consolidation in the enterprise software industry and leading the charge…Ellison ‘called a major shift in an entire market, which was impressive.’" Anticipating consolidation? Calling a major shift? Didn’t Microsoft start as a PC operating system vendor in 1975? In the eighties they owned the desktop, today they’re across the enterprise. Computer Associates began with a sort program in 1976. Now its product suite offers one-stop shopping for managing the enterprise. And in 1973 SAP was selling an accounting package in Germany. Today its software automates the global enterprise from the shop floor to order fulfillment. Isn’t predicting consolidation in the software industry about as prescient as predicting that the sun is going to rise in the morning? Consolidation is common in many industries, but three factors make the phenomenon of consolidation in the software industries, an ongoing repeatable event. The first factor is the natural evolution of software products and industries. New software industries start by delivering solutions to niche markets. This is, however, only the evolutionary starting point. Every industry has finite growth, and niche opportunities reach their limit quickly. Once the confines are actualized, a company, to continue growing, must expand their product’s capabilities by reaching into another industry to consolidate/converge additional functionality. The second factor is software to software interconnectivity. Interconnectivity makes it so simple to converge products from one software industry to the next, it encourages consolidation. Open systems, service oriented architectures, programming interfaces and programming languages were created to facilitate the interconnection of diverse software products, making the process of expanding growth-promising functionality by consolidating products relatively simple. The third factor: high-margin products and receptive investors, makes other industries envious of software. Margins often create huge war chests, and aggressive investors can create bank vaults that offer ready financing for acquisition-led consolidation strategies that promise opportunities for growth. Consolidation, though, is not always accomplished via acquisition. New capabilities can be built internally. The problem with this approach is that most companies find building paths into new industries difficult. It does require research, resources and focused execution. It also takes time. Many companies, failing to embrace that software lifecycles are time-compressed by intense competition and advances in technology, are caught off-guard by how quickly their industry becomes saturated. Then there is the problem of competition for internal resources. Software companies are faced with non-stop feedback from demanding customers that have an unquenchable thirst for simplifying the complexities of information technology. And all of us know that the squeaky wheel gets the grease. This variety of challenges leaves companies without sufficient time to “build” a path, making the buy option very attractive. Buying though, is attractive in its own right because it delivers instant gratification and one-upmanship. Of course, well-heeled competitors in an effort to close the competitive gap can take the similarly expeditious buy route and the process of industry consolidation is now on a fast track. Natural evolution, interconnectivity, available financing, and customer and competitive pressures have been fueling software consolidation for decades and there is no end in sight. Its an ongoing scenario of kill or be killed. Software companies that don’t keep a current strategy for consolidating or being consolidated face extinction. (Because figures did not transfer, you may want to go to www.sandpiperinnovationgroup.com and click on the articles tab for a complete copy of this discussion.) ? 2005 Kathleen Brush